A quarter of the season is behind us, and by now (injuries aside) team’s depth charts an work load pecking orders are becoming apparent. Understanding figures such as snap counts, touches, and targets are essential to grasping who is most likely to succeed in a given game and who will be the next man up when injury befalls a starter.
On that note, let’s assess:
Check out the AFC Edition
or view our Inside the Locker Room Week 4 Review broadcast for more
Touches and Targets Week 4: Minnesota Vikings
Matt Asiata posted the gawdy fantasy numbers but Jerick McKinnon’s outing was more noteworthy (Photo: Adam Bettcher/Getty Images North America).
Credit Matt Asiata for yet another touchdown binge and a solid game overall. He produced 100 total yards on 23 touches, but I must mention that despite the soft matchup he was yet again held under 4.0 YPC (a number he has never attained) while Jerick McKinnon broke off a big gain (55 yards) and went 17-80 on his remaining carries as part of a 152 total yard 19 touch effort. Asiata owners are loving the output today, and his work around the goal line likely cements him in that role for the team this season but more than anything, this game confirmed for me that it will be McKinnon’s time in Minnesota at some point this season. Until then, Asiata is the play as the team isn’t going to run the ball 40 times in a standard week but McKinnon has to be on all rosters at this point. The game further affirmed that Atlanta’s defense is a gold mine for opposing rushers. Last week in an awful game from Bobby Rainey they still allowed him to top 100 total yards, and have now given up eight TDs to running backs through four games. Minnesota’s line was simply opening up huge holes against Atlanta’s defensive front, with only 48% of the team’s rushing yards coming after first contact neither back was being hit around the line very often.
In the receiving game, Jarius Wright was targeted nine times (mostly on screens and high percentage passes) making eight receptions and turning them into 132 total yards, though you have to think that his use in a role more suited to Cordarrelle Patterson (four targets, two catches) has more to do with giving Bridgewater a familiar face to throw to than it does any true role for Wright moving forward. For those trying to determine the TE fantasy hierarchy with Kyle Rudolph out, Rhett Ellison played 57 snaps to Chase Ford’s 42 but the latter drew one extra target (three), and spent 54.7% of his snaps running pass routes while Ellison (31.6%) was used chiefly as a blocker.
Touches and Targets Week 4: New York Giants
While few were predicting the final score, we should have predicted Andre Williams’ big game against Washington. With Rashad Jennings coming off a 34 carry workload on the short week, it made sense that Williams garnered his highest workload of his young career. The 15-66-TD line from Williams is impressive, particularly considering that Washington had played strong run defense this season heading into the week, but it shouldn’t be viewed as a shift in the workload. Jennings remains the man in New York, but this is a trend worth being attentive to with your backs playing on Thursday nights.
Larry Donnell’s three TD outing (Daniel Fells scored as well, suggesting that Washington wasn’t ready to cover the position) is the story of the game, but that Victor Cruz went 6/10 on his targets and topped 100 yards for the second straight game is also noteworthy for a Giants passing game that has made great strides since Week 1. Beyond that, Rueben Randle also drew 10 targets, making eight receptions while Preston Parker served as the third receiver in the wake of Jerrel Jernigan’s injury. Parker played 45 snaps and was targeted five times, making three receptions. Of course, with Odell Beckham Jr. working to get back on the field that information may not be relevant for long.
Touches and Targets Week 4: Washington Redskins
Alfred Morris’ workload took a hit, given the hole Washington found themselves in in the second half, but his owners will be happy to see a touchdown on the ledger to be sure. Roy Helu, meanwhile, was targeted five times and made good on all of them for 78 yards. Games where you can expect Washington to trail are ones where Helu, the clear preferred passing down back (26 snaps this week; 31 for Morris) will carry some deep league value.
At receiver, DeSean Jackson’s limited usage is likely a function of his AC joint injury (four targets, one reception) but Pierre Garcon’s is more troubling. After drawing 16 (!) looks in Week 4 against Philadelphia a receiver who caught five balls in every game last year was targeted just four times. That has now happened in two of the last three weeks. His average of eight targets during that span seems nice enough, but games in which he is drawing just four looks don’t bode well when considering offensive context changes (the move to Kirk Cousins, Jay Gruden as head coach and the arrival of Jackson). If I’m a Garcon owner, I’ll think about moving him after his next big outing as his targets are going to be down drastically on the season.
Touches and Targets Week 4: Carolina Panthers
DeAngelo Williams was headed for the workload we expected with Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert, putting together 11 carries in 22 snaps. After his own injury, the heavy lifting was left to undrafted rookie Darrin Reaves. Reaves carried the ball 12 times for 26 yards, adding three receptions on five targets. Reaves seems destined to be the man in Week 5, though he hasn’t shown enough this season to warrant a spot start in all but the deepest of leagues.
There were few positives for Carolina on offense, but Kelvin Benjamin kept up his healthy target pace (an average of nine per game) and made five receptions, including a TD strike from Cam Newton. The touchdown was his first from Newton this season. Meanwhile, Philly Brown played just 12 snaps after a solid (outside of a special teams gaffe) Week 3. He was targeted four times on those 12 plays though, making two catches for 35 yards. It will be interesting to monitor his workload in the weeks ahead as the rookie may push veterans Jason Avant and Jerrico Cotchery for playing time.
Touches and Targets Week 4: Green Bay Packers
Eddie Lacy underwhelmed as a rusher yet again (17-48) but did manage a short TD, and perhaps most importantly he did enough to keep James Starks on the sideline, playing 50 of 52 snaps.
Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were each on the field for every offensive snap this week, each topped 100 yards, and each scored twice. Nelson’s 12 targets keep his average workload above 12 per game and his 10 receptions give him 33 on the season. He has been number one on the pecking order in every game so far, and that should continue but this type of game shows you that Aaron Rodgers can give you two useful receivers every week. Meanwhile, Davante Adams played a healthy 37/52 snaps in Jarrett Boykin’s absence, but was targeted just three times while Richard Rodgers (2/2, 52) was the only targeted TE.
Touches and Targets Week 4: Chicago Bears
Matt Forte delivered a line 2013 owners were accustomed to seeing this week. For the third time in four outings he topped 25 touches (23 catches, five catches on six targets) but this week he managed 171 total yards, looking like an elite rusher in the process. Chicago’s ball control game plan allowed for those 28 touches and 14 more from Ka’Deem Carey who put in his first extended work of the season (14 carries, 22 yards). In a more typical week though, expect the distribution to shift heavily back to Forte.
Perhaps resultant from injuries, or perhaps from his own excellent start to 2014 Martellus Bennett continues to pace the Bears in targets. He drew 11 this week, and made nine catches for 134 yards. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall each scored, but posted low yardage totals (39 and 19, respectively) while Marshall made just two catches on five targets. It is clear that his ankle injury is limiting him, and owners should expect it to hinder Marshall most weeks, unfortunately. His size ensures that he can remain productive and he’ll always be a solid red zone target but he is not showing a lot of explosiveness at this point. Josh Mogran, and not Santonio Holmes, started in the slot and was the next most used Bears’ WR.
Touches and Targets Week 4: Detroit Lions
In a touch matchup against the Jets’ run defense, Reggie bush totalled 65 yards on 16 touches which is a solid enough workload given the opponent. Joique Bell notched 10 opportunities before exiting early with a concussion. This continues to be a fairly even split when both backs are healthy, but with the Bills on tap this week and Bell’s status uncertain due to his head injury Bush could be in line for 20+ opportunities against a defense yielding 4.4 YPC on the young season.
As expected, Rex Ryan devoted attention to Calvin Johnson this week despite the fact that Megatron took the field at clearly less than 100%. Johnson saw just two targets, while Golden Tate was left free to work the middle of the field out of the slot. His 10 targets and eight receptions led to a 116 yard outing, his first 100 yard game as a Lion. Johnson suffered no setbacks with the ankle and should therefore be more like himself in Week 5 but it is clear that Tate is ready to take advantage of games where Johnson isn’t ready, or where defenses pay him too much attention. Meanwhile, you’ll be excited about Jeremy Ross’ big day, but he played just 31 snaps despite Johnson playing his lowest % of snaps in recent memory (39/65) and two targets don’t add up to strong fantasy days all that often. Eric Ebron joined Ross in the endzone, catching three balls on four looks from Matthew Stafford. He was the most targeted TE this week, though with two looks still going to Brandon Pettigrew his value is somewhat capped.
Touches and Targets Week 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While his touchdown and 11.3 fantasy point day obscure it, Doug Martin didn’t run all that well in his return to the lineup (14-37). What he did do, though, is out-touch Bobby Rainey 16-5 in what likely is a good predictor of the workload distribution, at least in the short term.
In keeping with a trend for rookie TEs (Eric Ebron, Jace Amaro) Austin Seferian-Jenkins appeared to have made progress in his bid to supplant Brandon Myers. Myers played just 29 snaps, while ASJ was on the field for all 71 of Tampa Bay’s offensive plays and made three receptions on five targets (Myers: 0/1). Vincent Jackson, meanwhile, enjoyed heavy usage from Mike Glennon – as was their trend in 2013 – though for the second straight week he drew double digit targets and caught three balls or fewer. He had a score in each game, but with two drops this week you wonder how his wrist fracture will impact his season. Mike Evans was targeted seven times despite leaving early with an injury (the seven looks came on just 37/71 snaps). Evans is likely to miss the next week or two, so that should mean more work for Vjax, but also for the newly signed Louis Murphy who was integral to Tampa Bay’s comeback and was targeted 11 times in the contest.
Touches and Targets Week 4: Atlanta Falcons
Steven Jackson played less than half of Atlanta’s offensive snaps (29) though he did touch the ball 15 times and tallied 62 total yards. Jackson had a TD called back, spoiling what otherwise could have been a productive fantasy day. However, his ceiling remains low as Atlanta is mixing in other backs to keep him fresh. Four RBs touched the ball this week against Minnesota with Antone Smith providing his usual spark, this one in the form of a 48 yard touchdown on which he showed great speed getting to the edge and accelerated away from all would be tacklers. Smith actually has 37.2 fantasy points on the season, and is averaging .98 fantasy points per snap on the year… to put that in perspective, teammate Julio Jones has a solid .24. Smith is never going to be a 10-12 carry guy, but it appears that the team will be giving him a handful of carries each week and given his propensity for big plays there are actually worse lottery tickets out there.
After heavily favoring Julio Jones through three games, the Vikings dictated that Matt Ryan lean on Roddy White this week and while White’s fantasy line was sufficient (four catches, 73 yards and a score) the outcome was not. He was targeted 13 times, and Ryan threw two picks while looking his way. Jones had a healthy eight looks himself, so owners can’t complain, but the offense looked more fluid when the ball was heading his way. Harry Douglas was a late inactive for Atlanta, leaving Devin Hester with more playing time than anticipated. Hester, like Smith, again delivered his customary explosive play taking a benign screen to the house as part of a 7/5/70 day. The 38 snaps and seven targets are the most Hester has played all season, but both are likely to recede with the return of Douglas.
Touches and Targets Week 4: Philadelphia Eagles
Before anyone hits the collective panic button on the Eagles (and LeSean McCoy owners, I can’t blame you) let’s remember that this was an offense you were raving about heading into the weekend. They’ve had their issues with poor first halves, and this week was no different, but right now the issue seems to be with correctable problems (either with return to health, or improved play) along the offensive line. Don’t forget, Lane Johnson provides much needed reinforcement returning from his suspension this week. The pass and run blocking both graded in the heavy negatives this week, per PFF, and therein lies the answer to poor fantasy production. That won’t help McCoy owners reeling from a 10-17 performance, mind you, nor will it be immediately remedied.
Jeremy Maclin had a down game statistically, and with Nick Foles under constant pressure the two failed to connect as regularly as they did the week prior. With that said, he logged another 14 targets which gives him 45 on the season and double digits in every game so far. Maclin is as good a bet for WR1 numbers as anyone right now, despite their struggles. In another item of interest, Riley Cooper was targeted on screens and deep balls alike and his eight looks topped the six of Jordan Matthews after I’d gone and anointed Matthews as the WR2 to own in Philly (I stand by that this week, mind you). As our Chris Meaney pointed out to me in our Week 4 NFL Review podcast, though, it could be that Cooper is getting healthy after spending the offseason on the shelf. Keep an eye on the distribution in coming weeks.
Touches and Targets Week 4: San Francisco 49ers
Frank Gore topped 20 touches (25) for the first time this season and put together an impressive 174 total yards including a 55 yard receiving touchdown that Colin Kaepernick threw very brazenly across his body, and the width of the field. His workload, though, seems to be a function of San Francisco playing run heavy and running a lot of plays in general as Carlos Hyde netted ten carries of his own. At 2.6 YPC, though, Hyde was far less effective than the veteran this week.
Despite missing some time with a foot injury, Michael Crabtree was the most targeted 49ers receiver with eight looks and five receptions, while Anquan Boldin drew six and caught five. With Vernon Davis back in the lineup (though he missed much of the second half) Steve Johnson’s targets came back down to earth (two on just 14 snaps, with Brandon Lloyd playing 38 and drawing four) but he did get the look that mattered in the corner of the endzone from Colin Kaepernick.
Touches and Targets Week 4: New Orleans Saints
It is hard to get a read on the snap data for New Orleans, but the Travaris Cadet paradox that we worried about last week came into play in Week 4. Cadet, starter Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas split snaps evenly at 20/19/23 respectively, and he was a tough cover in the passing game notching six catches on six targets for 59 yards. Robinson, meanwhile, was a menace between the tackles (8-87) and added two receptions of his own to total 105 yards but Pierre Thomas got his hands on the ball just four times despite a game flow that would presume to benefit last year’s 76 reception back. Thomas, the elder statesman in the Saints backfield, appears to have been rendered into fantasy irrelevancy despite his score last week.
In the passing game, the Saints simply couldn’t get anything going against Dallas despite facing an undermanned Cowboys secondary. Marques Colston led receivers in targets with 10, catching five balls, while Jimmy Graham was kept off the scoresheet for most of the game (until Bruce Carter went out? Though, that could have been a coincidence) but finished with a solid 10/8/86/TD line. Kenny Stills played plenty, with the Saints trailing (46 snaps) but was targeted just three times, while Brandin Cooks went 5/5.
Touches and Targets Week 4: Dallas Cowboys
DeMarco Murray notched another 25 touches to sit at 108 through four games. He also compiled 149 rushing yards and scored a touchdown, giving him four straight games to start the season accomplishing both feats. He’ll slow, eventually of course, but his workload and his ability to see the hole when running the ball make him an elite fantasy back the rest of the way regardless. Such that it matters, Joseph Randle played seven snaps to Lance Dunbar’s three… though, given the lopsided score it is unclear if this signals a change in the backup RB… a relevant position given Murray’s injury history.
With Dez Bryant seeing double coverage for most of the first half, Terrance Williams matched a season high with seven targets and caught six of them, finding the endzone twice and finishing with 77 yards. Dez had six looks and caught a late score, while Jason Witten had a great game blocking and making timely receptions, but, his 5/5/61 line won’t pay many fantasy bills while representing a season high in receptions and yards.
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